His 2016 presidential campaign was punctuated by scandals that would have likely felled a typical politician, including Trump’s recorded Access Hollywood conversation about groping women that was referenced multiple times in this trial.
Mr Trump’s party largely stuck with him through two impeachments and the chaotic end of his presidency, during which the US Capitol was attacked by a mob of his supporters.
All this did not prevent the former president from undertaking a political revival that has put him in position to win back the White House in November.
“It’s axiomatic at this point, but Trump’s continued support, despite the kind of scandal that would have scuttled literally any other previous candidate in American history, is truly astounding,” says Mr Engel.
This historic criminal conviction may prove to be different – particularly if Trump’s appeals fail and he faces the prospect of prison.
Or it could just be the latest in a long series of seemingly disruptive events that, in hindsight, have only been bumps on Trump’s path to power.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has constructed a political model that has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984. He concedes, however, that Trump’s criminal conviction could be the kind of “cataclysmic and unprecedented” twist that throws the model for a loop and changes the course of history.
“History books will record this as a truly extraordinary, unprecedented event, but a lot will depend on what happens afterwards,” he says.
The ultimate judgement on the importance of Trump’s conviction will come at the hands of voters in November. If the former president is defeated, his guilty verdict is likely to be viewed as one of the reasons why.
If he wins, it may become just a footnote to Trump’s tumultuous yet consequential political career.
“History is written by the winners, as we all know,” Mr Engel says.
Article Source: BBC.com
