Global cinema revenue is expected to continue its post-pandemic recovery in 2026, with worldwide box office earnings projected to reach $35 billion, according to new estimates from Gower Street Analytics.
If realized, the figure would mark the second consecutive year of global growth, representing a 5% increase over current 2025 projections. It would also position 2026 as the strongest year for the theatrical business since 2019, when the global box office peaked at $42.3 billion.
“We predict 2026 will be the highest grossing global year since 2019 ($42.3 billion), topping the current high of 2023 ($33.9 billion),” said Gower Street Chief Analyst Thomas Beranek, who led the forecasting work. “Especially in the markets driven by Hollywood product we expect the most significant growth.”
Despite the upward momentum, the industry is not expected to fully return to pre-pandemic norms. At current exchange rates, the 2026 forecast remains 12% below the average annual revenue recorded between 2017 and 2019.
In North America, the domestic box office is projected to reach approximately $9.9 billion in 2026 — an 11% increase over 2025, though still 14% below pre-pandemic averages.
The international box office excluding China is forecast to generate about $18 billion, representing 5% year-over-year growth but remaining 11% under 2017–2019 levels.
Breaking international markets down regionally, Gower Street estimates:
- EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa): $10.05 billion (+7% vs. 2025 / -9% vs. pre-pandemic average)
- Asia-Pacific: $5.3 billion (flat year-over-year / -15% vs. pre-pandemic)
- Latin America: $2.65 billion (+9% vs. 2025 / -5% vs. pre-pandemic)
China, the world’s second-largest theatrical market, is conservatively forecast at $7.1 billion in 2026, down 4% from 2025. The estimate follows a volatile year that delivered both the highest-grossing local film of all time, Ne Zha 2, and the second-biggest imported title ever, Zootopia 2, while also experiencing prolonged periods of weaker attendance.
Due to a still-limited release calendar, analysts describe China as the most difficult market to predict heading into 2026.
Gower Street attributes much of the expected growth to an unusually robust theatrical slate.
“There is an incredibly strong franchise-led release calendar for 2026 with new installments in massively popular film series including Avengers, Spider-Man, Toy Story, Dune, Star Wars, Super Mario Bros., Minions, Jumanji, Scream, The Fockers and Hunger Games,” said Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s Director of Theatrical Insights.
He added that audiences will also see major non-franchise releases, including the Michael Jackson biopic Michael, a live-action Moana, and new films from acclaimed directors Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey) and Steven Spielberg (Disclosure Day).
“Audiences will be spoilt for choice,” Mitchell said.
Gower Street executives also highlighted the firm’s recent forecasting performance.
“Our forecasting accuracy remains strong,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos. “For 2024, our early forecast landed within 5% of the actual global year-end result, a year ahead of time. For 2025, we’re tracking toward a final global total within 2% of our original $33 billion forecast from 12 months ago.”
The company later revised its 2025 estimate to $34.1 billion and expects final results to fall within that range.
Gower Street cautioned that projections could shift as studio release schedules evolve, untitled films are revealed, exchange rates fluctuate, or unforeseen global events occur. All figures are presented in U.S. dollars, using historical exchange rates for past years and current rates for forecast periods.
